Well... they have been match racing for 6 heats so far and its dead even.

IMO, this regatta will be decided by mistakes (took a shot on the shift and missed it...) or equipment failures.

Any other countries use the winner take all format of a trials for the Olympic slot?

US OLYMPIC TRIALS
(October 8, 2007) The US is the only country in the world that selects its
Olympic and Paralympic sailing candidates by hosting a single trials event,
and it is all on now for 176 entrants in 13 of the 14 classes (Yngling has a
separate system). From October 6th through the 14th, there will be a 16
race, one throwout series for all classes except the 49er, which has
scheduled a 24 race, two throw-out event. Here is the report from the third
day of racing:

IMO, this regatta will be decided by mistakes (took a shot on the shift and missed it...) or equipment failures.

The Olympic sailing pool in the USA is small in all classes

Wednesday - October 10 2007 - 0850 PST - Charlie Ogletree sent in this update from the Tornado Olympic Trials:

What's that old saying about winning on the swings and losing on the roundabouts? That's the way it is at the U.S. Sailing Olympic Trials for the Tornado Class, where for the fourth day in a row Johnnie Lovell and I aboard Advanced Equities I beat Robbie Daniel and Hunter Stunzi in one race and finished second to them in the other.

For four consecutive days the lead has seesawed between them and us, them and us! With the regatta half over, we are still equal on points, and for that matter, on finishes. The discard rule kicked in today but that didn't bring any relief. We each dropped a second place.

It's been obvious from the outset that Robbie and Hunter's bid for the US Tornado Olympic berth would be the biggest obstacle in our drive to represent our country for a fourth time and to improve on the Silver Medal we won in Athens.

Our pre-start maneuvers quickly turned into match race prestarts and we've been pretty darn successful for the last four days in controlling them off the line. What we can't control are the capricious shifts and puffs that have confounded all our attempts to cover them. One thing's for sure. This regatta is great practice for whatever crew makes it next year to the notoriously tricky waters of Qingdao.

With our back-to-back first places, last night and today, we began to get excited about the possibility of a third victory to break the tie. The breeze was up to 12 knots with signs of building so we decided to increase the pressure some more in our pre-start match with Robbie. We managed to bury him pretty good, but other boats were in the area and we had to break off for our start. His only option was to tack and go right and wouldn't you know, the breeze increased and went right. That was it. We made incremental gains throughout the race but the race was his.

Today is our lay day and we'll be spending some time checking the boat over for any potential gear problems that might be developing. After that we plan to take it easy. On Thursday we'll be beginning eight more races - in effect another regatta - to see who goes to Qingdao.

San Diego Yacht Club / Daniel/Stunzi and Lovell/Ogletree: These guys have swapped 1-2 finishes the first four days in as tight a two-boat contest as possible. John Lovell/Charlie Ogletree won Tuesday's first race in 8-10 knots of breeze by 29 seconds, and Robbie Daniel/Hunter Stunzi won the second in 12-14 by 49 seconds. Lovell said, "We're a little bit frustrated, but Robbie's sailing excellent. The boat speed's about the same, and it seems like the one that gets off to the favored side on the first beat can stay in front." Lovell/Ogletree have been match-racing their rivals for the favored side in the pre-starts, "but they've been good at getting out of the pins," Lovell said. "We're hoping for stronger wind. The forecast is for 20 knots [on the day off Wednesday]. That's just our luck." ---Mike Foster reporting