Johnny Lovell and Charlie Ogeltree had an awesome day on the water in Athens today finishing 1-2 in Races 9 and 10 of the Olympic Regatta and insuring they leave the event with no less than a silver medal. Frontrunners Roman Hagara/Hans Peter Steinacher finished 2 and 4 so Lovell and Ogeltree are within 2 points overall counting a throwout. Behind them, there is a 3-way battle for the bronze between the Australians (Bundock/Forbes), the Dutch (Booth/Dercksen), and Argentinians (Lange/Espinola)

If you check the scores, Team USA is guaranteed the silver medal no matter what happens now. The Austrian team in first place have more pressure on them. Due to the throwout scenario, if they have a bad race on Saturday and the Argentinians win, they could drop to a bronze medal so they will definetly feel more pressure.

Team USA has an opportunity to match race the Austrians off the course, something Johnny Lovell is capable of doing as a past Prince of Wales champion. I am sure that Hagara is hoping Team USA will leave them alone to sail their own race. As a fellow US cat sailor, I hope Johnny goes after them like Lance Armstrong in the final stages of the Tour De France, no mercy!

Saturday will be an exciting day. Tune in to the ISAF website www.sailing.org for the most up to date news.

Bob Hodges
A-Class USA 147
18HT USA 45

Thats what I'm sayin, hammer em all day long!

I'm looking at the scores but really don't see how the Austrians could realisticly drop to a bronze.

Afterall the same throwout trick that garantees Lovell/Ogletree their silver pretty much garantees the same to Hagara and Steinacher baring a DSQ or finishing 15th or higher. The last is quite an achievement in a 17 boat strong fleet.

Maybe I'm missing something completely but they way I see it the pressure is more on on the Americans than on the Austrians. The Austrians being 3 points ahead means that Lovell/Ogletree must attack and manage to get at least 3 boats between them and the Austrians to claim the gold entirely for themselfs. So I don't understand the "Going after them like ... " either. The Americans will shoot themselfs in the foot by staying near to Roman and Hans Peter; they need to get away. Therefor the latter two can be sure that they can sail their own race tomorrow. The Austrians only need to make sure that they either :

-1- Let no more than 3 boats finish between the Americans and them and finisher higher than 14th.

or

-2- finish higher than 5th.

to take the gold and


-3- finish higher than 14th to take the silver when not staying within 3 boats of the Americans

They are garanteed a medal already.


Compare this to the Americans.


-1- finish at least 4 boats ahead

or

-2- cause both of them to finish 15th or lower

In order to take gold for themselfs.

Apart from that they Americans can stay in bed for silver.


Therefor Hagara's tactic will be simple. Put the boat within a few boatlengths of Lovell and do what ever the Americans are doing short of risking finishing 14th or higher.

Booth on the other hand will try to DSQ everybody above him so he'll be very agressive. Mostly towards Bundock and Lange.

Or am I missing something ?


Wouter

Point being that the Austrian's already dropped score is 14th. If they finish badly, it will add up in their score unless they finish even worse than 14th. The worst Lovell and Ogletree can do is get 9 points since their worst race (and their dropped score) is 9th...(i.e. if they finish 14th, they still only get 9 points added because the 14 will be their drop now). Wouter, my man...the way I see it is that;

A) if the USA covered Austria and finished 11th while Austria finishes 12th, USA wins gold (Austria gets 12 points - USA only 9 since their drop will be this 11th place finish. Scores will be 45 and 45 and since USA places highest in last race = winner). If this happens, refer to scenario C as to how Austria could even fall to Bronze.

B) USA has to finish with 2 boats in between them (not 4). If USA got 1st, Austria 4th, totals would be 37 and 37 and again because USA placed higher in the last race = winner.

C) Austria can possibly loose 13 points to drop to bronze if they finish poorly and the current 3rd place, Spain, get's 1st or 2nd. This is because Austria's throw out was a 14th place finish in Race 5. The American's, on the other hand, would have to loose 10 points to Spain in order to drop to bronze but since their throwout is currently a 9, they can't possibly earn more than 9 points in the last race hence there is no way Spain can catch them. USA guaranteed silver or gold.

Move over Jobson--here comes Jake...

Let's hope Bravo decides to give us coverage!

OK, I haven't read the SIs for the Olympic Regatta but did they really amend the scoring to break the ties based on who won last? Normally it would be number of 1sts, number of 2nds, etc. and it would appear to me that the Austrians would win that tiebreaker...

Uh Oh....I guess I missed that one...dangit . But to further complicate matters...Austria would win the tie breaker unless the USA placed first in the last race ([3] 1sts, [3] 2nds vs. [3] 1sts and [1] 2nd). Then the USA would win any tie breaker because they have many more seconds but only one less first place finish right now.

OK properly amended:

A) If Austria finishes worse than 13th, regardless of USA finish, USA wins gold (Austria gets 13 points - USA can only earn 9 since their drop will be this finish if worse than 9th). Scores will be 46 and 45 USA. If this happens, refer to scenario C as to how Austria could even fall to Bronze. Johnny and Charlie could try and cover and slow Austria to keep them in 13th or worse.

B) If trying to out run the Austrians, USA has to finish with 2 boats in between them if they place first or 3 boats in between if USA has any other worse finish position. If USA got 1st, Austria 4th, totals would be 37 and 37 and USA would win the tie breaker ONLY because they scored a first place finish in the last race. If USA is 2nd or worse, there would have to be 3 boats between them and Austria for USA to overtake the gold position by one point because Austria would have more 1st place finishes in the regatta and win a tie breaker. Only if USA obtains a 1st in the last race will they equal Austria's number of first place finishes and since the USA already has many more 2nds than Austria, they now win the tie breaker.

C) Austria can possibly loose 13 points to drop to bronze if they finish poorly and the current 3rd place, Spain, get's 1st or 2nd. This is because Austria's throw out was a 14th place finish in Race 5. The American's, on the other hand, would have to loose 10 points to Spain in order to drop to bronze but since their throwout is currently a 9, they can't possibly earn more than 9 points in the last race hence there is no way Spain can catch them. USA guaranteed silver or gold.

I don't think that even Jobson could explain that for the general public in less than 15 minutes...I can barely explain it to Wouter much less get it right myself! (I'm only joking Wout buddy)

From ISAF appendix A

A2 SERIES SCORING

Current Position

A2.2 Series Ties

(b) If there is a tie in series scores between two or more boats, each boat's race scores shall be listed in the order of best to worst. At the point where there is a difference, the tie shall be broken in favour of the boat with the best score. If a tie remains is shall be broken in favour of the boat that obtained her best score nearest the end of the series. If a tie still remains it shall stand for the series results, and boats tied for a prize shall share it or be given equal prizes.



if this is true it would take a first for USA in race 11, in order to win a tie on points.

It's gonna be hard to shake off AUT. Good luck to Team USA on their pseudo match race for the Gold... Congrats on locking up the silver.

Mike

Whew! I started reading that thinking I was going to have to REamend my assesment - but thankfully no, I finally got it.

I am, however, interested in how the last part of that rule could ever happen after sorting as per the previous two directives:

It could happen if the 2 boats receive the same score like in a tie in a race, or both getting redress, or both getting a scoring penalty, etc..

This would have to happen in EVERY race for a tie to occur.

Otherwise this would break the tie :

From Scuttlebutt #1656 this morning.

STRATEGY
Yachting journalist Rich Roberts spoke with triple Olympic Medallist Mark
Reynolds about the strategy John Lovell and Charlie Ogletree might use in
the final race for the Tornado class on Saturday. Roberts noted that
Austria leads by three points but is currently throwing out a 14. The US's
throwout is a 9 and it has at least a silver medal clinched. So look for
Lovell/ Ogletree to do to the Austrians what Paul Foerster and Kevin
Burnham did to the Brits in the 470s. If both finish back in the pack the
US wins gold by two points. Here are Reynolds' thoughts:

"Tornados, I don't know how that works. I don't know much about the other
guys, but Johnny [Lovell] has done some match racing. They're in the
driver's seat, but it might be pretty hard to control somebody [in a
catamaran]. I'm sure he'll give it his best. There's no downside, It's a
nice position to be in. I'm hoping those guys come through. We need another
gold medal for Team USA."

Curmudgeon's Comments: Lovell/ Ogletree won the 2003 International
Catamaran Challenge Trophy - a match racing series sailed in Formula 18HT
catamarans. Hmmmm!

The amended rule refers to "best score", singular, which seems to open up the possibility of an unbrokwn tie to a much greater extent than the standard Appendix A 8.2 rule, unless I'm reading it wrong.

e.g.

1.5,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9
1.5,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,2

would be an unbroken tie using the amended rule.

I think

Boat B would win in your scenario given this second part of the rule right?


Boat A) 1.5,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9
Boat B) 1.5,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,2

Hi Jake, not the way I read the rule. Both boats had their "best score" (singular) in race 1 (1.5). It's an unbroken tie the way I read the (non-standard) rule... but it could just be me misinterpreting it... Why on earth did they bother changing it though! The standard rule explicitly mentions excluding discards and working back though "next-to-last" races; this amended rule just refers to a boat's "best score". In the example, both boat's "best score"s are eqi-distant from the "end of the series"...

I read that the same was as Jake....

I also read between the lines and I think the wording is trying to break this type of tie :


Boat A 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,1.5 (redress)
Boat B 2,3,4,5,6,7,1,1.5 (redress)

Boat B would win by having the 'best score nearest the end of the series' (between the lines) once the tie breaker is moving back thru the results

So the logic would be (I feel) equal points, so tie,
Tie break is the last race (equal) so tie

Resulty in 2nd to last race breaks tie....

I recall there was also a clause where, in addition to all the other ways.
If you had an odd number of races, you could check who beat who more.
I wonder why this was written out by the guru's?

Shoot...I dunno...breaking it down though:

Sooo...we have a tie in score at
Boat A) 1.5,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 : 45.5
Boat B) 1.5,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,2 : 45.5

According to the first part of this rule, we then look at placements and we have a tie again since each sailor had one finish 1.5, 2, 3, 4, 5, etc...still a tie.



Because boat B finished better in the last race, they are now the winner.

Boat A) 1.5,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 : 45.5
Boat B) 1.5,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,2 : 45.5

I don't know either, read it too many times now, but given the actual wording, I think I would be happy to argue my interpretation in the protest room... if I had to...

Good luck team USA; you have sailed an awesome regatta...

And this is why it is easier and better to have the last race be the tie breaker.
Rick