Todd,

It's my fault . The lift is there, but the torque of the sail's thrust also has to be considered (and there is even more to consider - but you can read about it in the articles indicated by Wouter).

Focusing in the torque only:

The sail's thrust can be considered to be acting in the center of the sail area, which is HIGH. The torque generated by the thrust tends to bury the bow. What keeps the boat from pitchpoling is the bow's flotation. Lack of flotation there is a big problem.

The effect of the torque generated by the sail's thrust is usually greater then the effect of the lift, thus your initial confusion.

Super simplified conclusions:

1-A big foresail increases the risk of pitchpoling, due to the higher thrust generated by the greater sail area creating a pitchpoling torque.

2-A big foresail MAY reduce the risk of pitchpoling, if it is placed sufficiently forward for its lift to generate a torque which is bigger then that of the sail's thrust.

This is the reason why 49rs have loooong bowsprits...

I hope it helps.