I think that you will next see the certification issue come up. After that I do not think that there is another issue to keep the cup from happening. Question is simple, will Ernesto compromise and rewrite the protocol or will it be a DoG match?
I haven't formed an opinion yet on whether or not SNG will come to the table to build another multiple challenger event or if we're going to end up in a DoG match. It depends on how much hot air Ernesto was spewing for the sake of publicity and how hard the economic downturn has affected both team's pockets. Also recall that the last, and relatively successful event, was with SNG as the defender and with GGYC as the Challenger of Record (COR). They did negotiate the last protocol which mostly worked. However, if we do end up in a DoG match, several sticking points are going to come up:
1) the date of the event is to be presented by the challenger but no sooner than 10 months from the date of the challenge (I paraphrase loosely). SNG (Alinghi) will almost certainly seek cause for delay through legal means. It's arguable that the 10month period started from the point SNG received GGYC's original challenge a looong time ago and that the time period has passed. We ~could~ race tomorrow (if GGYC's boat wasn't in the shed undergoing some sort of modifications) .... naturally, that's unlikely but it gives GGYC the potential to plop down any date leading us back to court. The deed says the clock starts when the challenge is received...not after it's been through a lengthy appeals processes and finally determined that it was indeed the official one. However, if it did go to court, I suspect the courts would elect for the 10 month clock to start today - the day they finally ruled that GGYC is the official challenger of record.
2) the place; it's up to SNG to determine the location of the event but other than saying something like "as soon as possible", the deed doesn't specify exactly WHEN this information should be given to the Challenger of Record (COR). SNG could potentinally wait until the day before the match as long as they can justify that was "as soon as possible". Boat designs are going to need to be different if you're racing off the coast of Valencia or off the tip of Cape Horn. Withholding this information to such an extreme delay would not be within the intent of the deed - but the lawyers and courts would spend a lot of time figuring that out and it could again end up in an appeals process that would delay the match.
3) With regards to the official challenging boat certification document from GGYC to SNG...SNG has been screaming about this for a long time since we all see Oracle sailing a big multihull that fits their challenge requirement. But again, like the date issue, the deed is relatively non-specific regarding the timing the certification information should be submitted to the defender. In fact, for all we know, the boat we saw sailing on the west coast
might not be the boat GGYC intends challenge with. GGYC never made any such claim...they just rolled out a huge boat from a shed that was built with secrecy and happened to closely match the challenge parameters...we all assumed that it is the official challenge boat. There is also a debatable design parameter on this boat because the amas are longer than the 90' specified...but are they longer than 90' at the water line?...that kind of stuff will get ugly. However, it is entirely possible that GGYC is building a second boat based on what they learned or that this boat is going to be extensively modified. Either possibility would invalidate any certificate so there's no point in giving one up to the other side for a boat that isn't the challenge boat.
The deed is unclear about the timing off all of this information transfer and it will be cause for a lot of tussling if they choose to go the DoG route.