Assuming equal downwind speeds, the way this is drawn, blue passes yellow and green by at least a boat length and has a decent chance of passing gray since they have to jibe and blue only hardens up. Blue can stay outside of gray after they jibe to avoid any fouls and still have a decent chance of blasting through their lee on the way to the finish line. Chancing any inside move at the mark only exposes blue to a high risk, low return scenario. Green and yellow are likely to be so involved with each other that they allow blue to sail by either ahead and/or to leeward without much thought. I would rather be in blue's position than green or yellow and possibly even gray depending on wind speed. Since gray has a two boat lead to the mark over blue but has to jibe, blue should plan to take the safe route to leeward, pass the two boats closest, and have a decent chance at the boat already ahead (gray) to win.