Wouter,
I stand by my statement that long distance racing is more of a "crap shot" than bouy racing! Yes, the better teams do tend to do well in both events.
I have raced in many long distance races, winning many, that simply were not indicative of the crew skill level nor of the boat's performance potential. As boats get spread out geographically and across time, the teams often find themselves in differnet conditions from one another.
Sailing with my brother, I once competeted in an event called the Chesapeake Light Race. It was a 30+mile event that was upwind/downwind on that day. We finished at about 3pm in 15 ktns and at 3:05pm the wind STOPPED! To add insult the tide went adverse. Several good teams on fast boats finished around 10pm, with the next boat finishing after 7pm!
You mentioned the Mug Race and it is a great example. What if they would have stopped the race at the half way point? Randy and myself, sailing his Javelin 2, lead the event by 3-5 miles in the middle of the event! This was not because the Jav 2 was that much faster than the other boats (RC 30, RC 27, I-20, etc), but because Randy and myself decided to play the shore (very closely) downwind and sailed often in 6" of water to do so! The other boats sat in no wind while we sailed as fast as 12 knts! Later we sat and watched most of the fleet catch us, as the wind filled from behind. This would be a poor circumstance to judge boat performance, wouldn't it?
Rarely does a fleet get spread this far out around a bouy course. This is why I consider bouy racing a better judge of boat performance potential.
Races like Tradewinds, Spring Fever, and Deleware have provided better indications of our boat's relative perfomance. Performance at any one given event is not a good indicator of a boats potential. If it were, the the Portsmouth Committee would have to place the Jav 2's handicap at a number faster than the I-20's. Once more of these new boats (F-18s, F-18HTs, and F-16HPs) are raced by sailors of differing talent, on more courses, and in differing wind/wave conditions, then we will have a better idea of their relative performance. Don't you agree?
I have nothing against the Texel Race and plan to race in it one day! I am fascinated by the storys of tides, waves and wind told by my friend Bill Roberts. While bouy racing is my love, I also enjoy racing in the Florida Keys Triple Crown, the Steeplechase, the C-100, the Statue of Liberty, and the Down the Bay races. Next year, I would like to race in both the W-1000 and the Tybee Race.