You need to refine your model a bit and add the extra drag that the jib gives you. You have a lower aspect ratio sail jib+main than the main alone, and more area of the sail wich is disturbed from the eddies at the ends.

I have several cases where the M20 uni proved to be faster on the upwind compared to Tornado, M20 sloop and Eagle cat. My examples are based on intervies with Marstrom on different occasions. That proves that your model needs to be refined.

Can you point out cases where the M20 uni was passed by an
M20 sloop, Eagle cat or Tornado on the upwind? Don't start talking about finishing times in Texel again!

I think it's time for you F16 guys to do some testing. Sail the boat single handed and uni rigged upwind in 15 knots of wind together with a referens F16. Add the jib to the single handed boat and test again.

/hakan