Sorry Tim but I disagree, if you duck him then you put your bows just behind his transom and you are also 1 tack behind as well, if you are both equal in tacking then he can still tack back onto starboard and cross you.

If you duck him and you both get lifted then you both reach in and he wins.

If you duck him and you both get headed then you are on the wrong side of the shift and lose ground to him, even if you make the mark and he doesn't he can tack and cross you, he wins again.