I think the best bet will be samsonvale, it was suppose to be 15-20 last week on the bay as well and we know how that turned out. Id say theres a 50/50 chance of humpybong racing at humpybong, so we may or may not see them out at samsonvale, i just dont know. Not that samsonvale will be boring without them as they have a sizable enough fleet on their own, with very good sailors who are always friendly and willing to offer advice when its needed (a fair bit in my case ). 15-20 will easily be enough to have a blast at samsonvale, they usually get 3-5 knots less than the coast, depending on the wind direction, but its flat, so no worry about waves (which is typically the main reason why humpybong gets cancelled).

I just looked at BOM forecast for Moreton bay and they are saying 20-25 for the bay! With 1.2m seas, so we can pretty much write humpybong off.

Also, my uncle is visiting from overseas at them moment and we are dropping him off at the airport at around 8am on sunday, so i may be 20-30minutes late out to samsonvale, but i spoke to David Bosley the yesterday (one of their racing officers) and he said if we arrive at the samsonvale gate at around 8:30 - 9:00 we should be able to get through the gate with the other members (the sailing club is actually on national park, so no public access, the sailing club has permission though, but it makes for a very quiet and relaxing place to sail). But as i said i may be a bit late, but if no ones coming through ill just give some one a call to come out and open the gate, which they are always happy to do.

Cheers,
Michael