I just happened to sit at the same table with Macca last night at dinner in Racine. The F16 topic came up and what he said seemed simple enough to me.
He feels that the rule set in F16 needs refinement (I think you all know his argument about a class killer) before Nacra jumps in and invests. We can argue all day about whether a class killer could/would be developed, but that is how he felt they viewed it. Risk versus reward.
I asked about the new 20 and the risk/reward equation and he said they had so many European pre-orders that it was put into production. He gave a couple of people at the dinner table a "tour" of a 20 hull they had on display. Big pricetag but looks to be an awesome boat. Certainly light weight. I could lift the hull with one hand. He said anyone who has test sailed it has bought it.