The race started in light air, about 7 mph, out of the north-northeast, so it was right on the nose and a beat all the way up Barnes and Card Sounds to Angelfish Creek. For part of that time the wind died to almost nothing.
After getting through the creek, they popped their spinnakers and headed a little offshore. The wind has now shifted around more to the east, so they are running pretty much down the shoreline on the Atlantic side of Key Largo, with wind up to 5-6 mph.
This is uni-rig / tall mast weather. I pray that the winds stay turbulent even when approaching 5-6 mph. If it transitions to laminair winds then we can predict the results to be in the order of the height of the masts. Highest mast first, lowest mast last.
That is not good news for the McDonalds (Matt and Gina). If they can get a good size spinnaker run in then the damage can be contained. Racing upwind against 9.5 mtr tall masted I-20's and 10.5 mtr and over masted M20's and ARC21's in lamminair winds (4-6 knots) is not what you want on an F16. The 1 to 2 mtr difference in mast height results easily in an additional 20 to 30 % difference in saildrive per square meter when the winds are laminair. In turbulants winds the saildrive per sq.mtr. are about the same.
So I know what the Blade F16 crew is praying for. Turbulant winds at any given speed available or massive spinnaker runs.
Wouter
