I just can't see the N17r or F17 (whatever) taking off. I don't know specifically why I think that, but I do. Which has more chance f16 or f17?
Define the parameters for that question.
Internationally or outside of Michigan ? F16 all the way. More builders, bigger numbers, events on all continents. These will garantee future F16 growth and succes.
Michigan and surrounding area, I-17R (or whatever its new name is) will remain strong for a while. They have a very good fleet there and it will take more time before the encirclement is complete and the F16 can go head to head with them locally as a class. In the way of basic design (personal preference and mods aside) the Blade F16 has the egde. There is no doubt in my mind of that. But it won't be easy to beat the Michigan I-17R skippers, you will have to bring some skills to do that.
The reason I ask is that I will be in mich in 1.5 years and don't think i will stick with the 6.0 that long.
Honestly, if you highly value strong local class racing then the choice is simple. I-17R. If you value other things like truly lightweightness, mixed 1-up 2-up sailing, continued development and 3rd supplier components then the choice pretty much points to F16's.
But indeed, F16 is a youngly in the great lakes area and it needs to grow there in the coming years.
Wouter