I'm sure you are all already aware, but there's another huge Hurricane preparing for a stike at the South Eastern US coast. It's too early for a landfall prediction but without a doubt the Bahamas are going to get some serious weather. Huricane Frances already has winds sustained near 120mph and is expected to get stronger. From www.noaa.gov

Because of what happened with Charley -- the last-minute change in direction -- do you think the Hurricane Center is being much more conservative in their projected path predictions for Frances? Or are they showing such a huge range of possibilities just because it is too far away for them to predict right now?

Bob Curry, what do you think? Where is she going to go?

From my perspective (and I have no training on the matter) this prediction is pretty consistent with their predictions in the past. It doesn't appear to be much broader. The NOAA "Discussion" gives you insight as to what they are thinking. Note the last paragraph...

Jake and all,

Yep, we are watching this one real close in the Virgin Islands...

...It had slowed down,..which in the storm business is bad news,......because that means, it is building in intensity...

..plus, it was tracking North-ish, and harmlessly into the Atlantic, but now has done a due west....bringing it into the Bahama chain and ??...we had a Hurricane do a 90% right turn once to hit St. Croix dead center,...anything can happen.

..our boats are up, stripped and secure,...this next 30 days are the peak 'hit' times......so I just keep the boat packed away.....


...the warm waters feed these storms,...if Francis makes it to the shallow warm Bahama waters,..

...this storm should be past St. Croix early Wed morning,.....the wind is up above the normal 15 mph and we had rain lines come in this morning...

..a certian sea bird, the big Petrel,..is seen alot before a big storm,......I saw them out today,...they soar so high, almost out of sight,..they are like little specks in the sky..

..so, time to prepare

regards,

Bruce
St. Croix
USVI

I'll defer to Bob on your question Mary. I did see on the NOAA site that the potential tracks indicated represent the the area the storm will be in 60% to 70% of the time. So I guess we can expect the storm to go outside the area indicated 30% to 40% of the time.

My daughter and her family are not a happy people at this time. They have reservations at Daytona Beach on Friday through Sunday and then are heading to Disneyworld, etc. on Monday. Looks like the first part of the vacation is going to be cancelled. At least the Grandkids are young enough that they won't figure out if the trip is delayed a couple days.
Jack
Fort Loramie, Ohio

It's funny,

To the day 8 years ago, Hurricane Fran was in exactly the same spot! It recurved out into the Atlantic. All eyes are on the building ridge to the north and where the upper low in the lower Bahamas is going to track. Keep your shorts on folks!

Bob Curry
Meteorologist

Hey, Bob, Isn't this about the same track and layout as Andrew? As I recall you were stationed in Homestead at the time and warned the AF that it would hit here and they didn't believe you.
Rick

The ridge building to the north (forecast) is what is troubling me. This would keep it on a more westward track and would have a HUGE impact again on South Florida. However, it's still too early to tell. Everyone with an interest from Miami to Hatteras should be prepared to seek shelter early as roads will obviously become clogged by those who wait until the last second. This is assuming the worst. I'll do my best to keep everyone informed with the "insider" information.

Bob

11 am update from St. Croix

The winds are out of the SW here around 20-ish. Francis is north of us and the eye should pass , going westward, this afternoon. There are cloud bands covering the sky.

The North shore here is a tremendous site, like Hawaii 5-0, with 7-8 foot rollers on a calm sea, the tops being blown off by the wind as they break on shore.

The tide is up about 5 ft and St. Thomas, BVI and Puerto Rico, being 40 miles closer to the eye, will hae more waves, wind and rain.

The Hurricane Hunters are stationed here and they come and go. I see that Francis is dropping to 948mb, which is a not-good sign.

So, the good report is that it missed us. However, be warned, it is coming your way.


Bruce
St. Croix
USVI

The noticed that the image in the first post is linked to the National Hurricane Center website and is updated when they update their projections. Looks like they are guessing that it'll turn a little North now.
Jack

The next 24 hours are crucial as to where and when it will begin the northward turn. Today, the upper low began to move westward and the ridge began to build. The latest satellite images showed a NW wobble but then a more westward march. Movement is 280 degrees. Think of it as a top, it won't spin on it's axis but wobble around in a circle. So, tomorrow at this time I might be able to clue everyone in to where she might go.

The NHC discussion this afternoon was very sit on the fence-ish. There is a lot of model conflict at the 72hr point. And, 4 models did flip flops on their respective paths. Folks in Florida south of Cocoa Beach should begin some type of plan for evacuation. However, everyone along the Atlantic coast south of Hatteras should be ready!! That's my first hint/guess as to where she might go! Hope it curves out to sea like Fran did 8 years ago.

Bob

A landfall on the United States mainland is appearing more and more imminent as Frances continues to move to the west. Residents in the Bahamas and Florida should begin to take the necessary precautions to prepare for this major storm. As of Tuesday afternoon, Frances was located approximately north of Puerto Rico and was headed toward the west. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected over the next couple of days. Frances will pass to the north of the Dominican Republic Wednesday, and approach the eastern Bahamas Wednesday night. This dangerous storm will hit the U.S. coast this weekend. (Thanx to AccuWeather)

Bob

What if you go out with main only and really crank on the downhaul??

Greg-
That might work in Tampa Bay with my 5-batten Hobie 14. You're welcome to try if you want to borrow the boat.

I think you could fly with only the mast, boards and rudders faster than you have ever gone before!

Got caught in a pretty stiff blow during a race. Winds could have been around 40. Broke a spreader, which made the mast flex so much I actually got the sail down with the downhaul still cranked.

Long and the short of it, I made 6+ kts with just the bare pole in that breeze. I could probably fly a hull trapped out in a hurricane if I were so inclined to end up in the obituaries....

waterbug, in this type of a hurricane you may fly two hulls!!
I've got to start making preparations. I wonder if those screw-in anchors would be enough to strap the catamaran to the ground

No.

Take the mast down, take the tramp off. Take it home.....

Florida Cat Owners,
After being in St. Croix 13 years, with many 'big' storm hits, here is some suggestions.

1. Take care of your boat today( Wednesday).
As the storm comes closer, more priority items appear and time grows short. Plus easy access to stuff becomes a very hard job. A friend, Brother, Mother , Son, etc. may call any moment for help,..and you gotta go!
-strip EVERYTHING off the boat, mast, rudder system, tramp, lines, everything.
-tie boat down or 'hide it' somewhere.
..if it gets airborne, consider it destroyed.
- If you can dissassemble the crossbars, better yet.
...this way, you can make the cat 'compact', slid in a garage wall, whereever.
- water in the hull, at 8 pounds a gallon ( 20 gallons = 160 pounds) is great, easily removable, weight.
- tie mast down somewhere.
...yes, these 'fly' too, and usually, cannot take much of a 'hit' before they are worthless.

Non Boat tips!

1. Fill bathtub full!
- it is amazing how little water it takes to shower, adults and kids.
- plus, this will be used to work toilets
2. DO ALL YOUR LAUNDRY!
-before Hurricane Marilyn, 1995, my wife was doing laundry, I was a little unhappy as I was on the roof securing stuff, she said' you will see', [ her being through Hugo in St. thomas].
...sure enough, no power for 2 weeks, man, you will be happy for clean clothes and bedsheeets after a hard day.
3. Non Refrig FOOD
4. Camper stove w/ fuel!
5. Camper Lantern, non battery
6. Non battery Board Games ( you will need them, especially if you have kids)
7. Small Radio
8. Rechargable drill ( many a story about saving a house by refastening a board on a window in the midst of a storm)
9. Plastic Garbage bag everything! Double Plastic Bag the important stuff.

HOW bad is the wind driven water?

Well, I have witnessed water blown through the cement block walls of my house.
Not thru the roof, not thru a opening,...but thru pores in the stucco,the block and the cement, so that the inside of the wall is wet, weeping water.

Get Ready.

Bruce
St. Croix