Folks,

We might be seeing the first of a series of rightward shifts to Frances. Some of the Global Dynamic models have just adjusted their tracks to the right. Satellite pics are all confirming something is up. Don't know if the NHC will do so on the next advisory but it looks like it might be trying to force itself into an upper level weakness in the ridge between Jacksonville-Savannah. Reason is the Gulf of Mexico is bottled up with the large High over Mexico and the shearing environment poleward of the SE ridge axis. S. Florida is still not out of the woods yet. However, concerns are now towards the Cocoa Beach-coastal Georgia-N. Carolina coastlines. Maybe this will take the "Fran" turn and just be a fish killer! Anything can still happen. Plan accordingly.

All boats should be off the beaches by now. Flying boats are your responsibility and you could be held accountable for the damage they cause. Do the right thing and put them away. On another note, make sure you have plenty of prescription meds with you if you require them. And, don't hesitate to empty the refrig, turn off the elec and water, and RUN for safety!!

Bob

Also, expect Hurricane/Tropical storm watches to be posted from Cocoa Beach southward beginning with the 11pm EST advisory tonight.

Bob

you 'da man Bob! Thanks for the heads up. Now I gotta get my sister moving again in Jacksonville and looks like my bro needs to keep a hard eye out in Charleston (not that he's not already since he's part of the city's 'ride out team' and is responsible for looking after the aquarium - yikes.)

Good Morning!

The forecasted right turn has not happened due in part to the building subtropical high. Everyone in SE Florida should be making final arrangements to their plans and implement in the next 6 hours. The waters off the SE coast are very warm and we could see a rapid intensification and increase in forward speed before landfall.

Time to go!

Bob

Hurricane Bob,
THANKS for you input and expertise. You cannot imagine how much we appreciate the "real skinny" from someone we know and trust. Keep it coming, as often as you can.
Charley had us really scared, this one is off the scale. Hard to believe, it is such a beautiful day outside! Got the boat secured, batteries charged and generator fueled, now hoping for the best.

Any specifics for N28º52.0' W081º41.5' is appreciated!

P.S. Please don't visit central florida during hurricane season. We know your reputation as a hurricane magnet.

Rick and Terry
Team Loewen

I wonder if there are any similarites to Huricane Andrew? ie: size

From Yahoo News:

Thanks Bob, we really appreciate your input also!

Sunny and about 15 knots in Rockledge right now. A number of boats still at their docks along the river, hope they moor them!

Good morning!

Looks like the eyewall implosion from yesterday continues to persisit. Westerly shear is increasing from the west and should continue through landfall. Forward speed is slowly beginning to slow and this is not good because of the prolonged affects of winds/rain. The landfall position is still uncertain but we can all guess somewhere along the Florida east coast south of the Cape. Folks who are staying put have a little more time for home preparations. However, Frances has not reached the warmer waters between Eleuthra and the SE FL coast meaning there could be a strenghtening before landfall. With all the filling Frances has gone through, I suspect the NHC wants to downgrade a bit but are hesitant to do so. Wait and see!

Bob