ALL of our friends along the NHC track and to the right of the center track should clear out and evacuate by tomorrow afternoon at the latest. She's a naughty girl at Cat 5 now but history shows us she won't stay a 5 for long. Rita has begun the series of wobbles to the NW as she confronts some shear in the mid-levels. Expect a strong Cat 4 with the classic right hand jog just before landfall. Think Katrina surge on the right front quadrant! GET OUT, GET OUT NOW!

Bob

Thanks Bob. I am starting to feel a little paranoid, like maybe I'm a hurricane magnet. I was home in Pensacola for Ivan, Dennis, and Katrina, I was working in my company's Raleigh office when Ophelia just recently sat for days on the NC coast. I left Raleigh last week to take a new position with my company. Care to guess where that office is located? You guessed it -- Houston! I-45 (going north), I-59, and I-10 (east / west) are parking lots. They're 5 million people in Houston and 1/3 of them are trying to leave. And, everyone exiting Galveston is coming through here too. I will be staying here, it's already too late to leave. Gas is running out and the traffic is at a standstill. I'll let you know how we make out.

All,

I just hung up on the NHC conference for Rita. There will be a right shift to the track and a decrease in the intensity forecast. Cat 4 now with a Cat 3 at landfall. If this track trend continues, could see another LA landfall this year. As it stands, the Houston/Galveston area will be on the left side of the storm track when it is posted at 10am CST.

Bob

Bob,

Our sailors on Galveston Island cleared out yesterday. Most of our sailors in the area just north of Galveston have left.

We are hopeful that Cat Alley survives. Cat Alley is a beach house that has served as the finish for the Great Texas for the past three years.

Everyone is trying to get out of Houston area and we have been coordinating housing in the Texas area using the PI Sailing mail list.

We are hoping for a weakening in the storm and that it runs into a more unpopulated area. A direct hit on Galveston and Houston would be very bad.

Current predictions from NHC are putting the expected path east of Galveston but the strike probabilities remain high for major portions of Texas. Right now, we can only hope for weaken and coming ashore in one of the more unpopulated areas.

Steve Piche

I fully understand what you were saying in both your first post and your second post. When I saw the NHC forecast and and the model predictions early Thursday morning, I was ready to run. Those predictions were beyond bad, that would have been a catastrophe. But it has gotten a lot better since then.

We are staying. We are just inside the cat 5 storm surge, in a strong house with aux power.

I also have the worlds biggest catamaran anchor. It is so big I had to use an old NACRA crossbeam as a cheater bar, to get 3 ft of it into the ground.

Good luck everyone

Another weather related link:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

Good luck to everyone affected.
Al