Tradewinds Weather Forecast

For those of you who follow weather.
NOAA
Weather Underground

At least it says it's blowing 15 on Saturday.
We could have us a little fun after all . . . . .

Unfortunately, it is not possible to get a reliable weather report or forecast for the Upper Keys, and especially Key Largo.

Forecasts come out of Miami or Key West, depending on how you do your forecast search. Usually, neither is accurate for Key Largo. We who live here have to figure it out for ourselves based upon the overall weather patterns.

The current readings from Homestead, only a half hour north of us by car, are often totally different from what is happening in Key Largo. Ditto for current conditions and forecasts for Key West.

What happens in Key Largo stays in Key Largo, and it is often a surprise, for better or worse.

But so far it sounds like an almost perfect weekend. The only thing that would make it better is to reverse the "forecast" and have the lighter air on Saturday and more air on Sunday. But at least it doesn't sound like it is going to be a blowout, as has happened with the Tradewinds several times (too much wind for most people to sail on one, or both, of the two days).

If the overall forecast holds, everybody will be able to sail both days.

Lets hope for that.

The "real" weather forecasts begin for you on Thursdays prior to an event. Anything else is just a best guess. Model forecasts are fairly accurate at the 48 hour point. Mary is correct; that end of Key Largo is a world unto itself!

Bob
Oh by the way, I'm a weather guy.

Make that ditto at least as far as Islamorada - them boys at the weather radio were wrong EVERY TIME! But hey, sailors are supposed to be able to read their own weather, yes?

sea ya
tami

Whats the water temp like?

Is it typical south florida bathtub water temp?

Should I even bother packing the drysuit?

Yes - pack the drysuit. It is not usually but it can be chilly (more the air than the water).

Water temps are in the mid 70s. You Yanks (anyone living north of Jewfish Creek) are probably used to water in the 30s, so consider it bathtub stuff.

We have had some chilly regattas in the past, but this one promises to be perfect.
As PRO, I will toss a quarter into the water to buy good winds from the gods.
Rick

Hey Jake,
Define "chilly"
See you there.

WOW, and I thought I was the only human being who did this.

I do it for winds when sailing and waves when surfing.

Amazing!

Well...our water is still liquid - went sailing yesterday on a 29'er (it was my first time and very likely my last). Air was 60 and the water was about 48-50. One forestay strawberry on my forehead and three capsizes later I discovered that my dry suit is leaking. I was chilly.

But to answer your question, 70 degree water is hard to consider chilly but we did have a big cold front come through a couple of years ago for Tradewinds that caused a minor stampede at West Marine for foul weather gear. The rest of the times a pair of shorts and a spray top was all that was required.

I wanna go....

All of my stuff is in the back of TigerBoy's truck in the parking lot at MIA - except my drysuit. And I'm not bringing it - just out of principle.

I'm still trying to figure out what I'm going to say to the airport screener when they find the rope (mainsheet) and roll of duct tape in my carry on.

Matt,
I'm sure the collective intelligence and wit on this forum will be able to supply plenty of explanations for why you are carrying a coil of rope and roll of duct tape in your carry-on.

A number of years ago, long before 9-11, an older gentleman was flying down to attend one of our Laser seminars. He was going to charter a boat at the site, but (as is common) brought his own tiller/hiking stick and wanted to carry it on with him so it would not get damaged. It was disallowed because it looked like a potential weapon.

Later it occurred to me that he should have disguised it as a cane and affected a limp. Then he could have been in the early boarding group, too.

Mary,

For those of us staying at hotels without ramps, where is the best place to launch from? Gilberts?

Thanks
Brian

Yes.

Throw in a garter belt and some lacy hose - you'll get a nod and a wink instead of a hassle. Kirk told me about that trick.

BK,
Last year we stayed at Amy Slates and paid Gilberts a $20 parking fee for the boat for the weekend. Thats where you want to be for sure, and try the Hydraulic at the Tiki bar, its yummy.

I saw that once in Columbus, OH while waiting for a flight sitting at a bar next to the screening area. Fuzzy pink handcuffs and other interesting paraphernalia were spread out on a table in front of a very embarrassed lady.