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Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: Tornado] #72984
04/19/06 06:05 PM
04/19/06 06:05 PM
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South Carolina
Jake Offline
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Quote
10-25 meter rises


I've heard this before and I've seen it from some pretty reliable sources...but looking at a globe I find it difficult to fathom how the relative size of polar caps can raise the entire ocean level of the globe 25 meters (wikipedia says if it were all to melt, it would be 60 meters). How is this possible? The artic ice cap has already shrunk by over 20% since the 70's. Is everyone counting the ice below the surface too?


Jake Kohl
-- Have You Seen This? --
Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: Tornado] #72985
04/19/06 06:14 PM
04/19/06 06:14 PM
Joined: Feb 2006
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Upstate, South Carolina
SunnyZ Offline
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The earth naturally has an ebb and flow. I live in the middle of South Carolina, about 2 hours from the shore and yet where I live was once beechfront property. Fossils of shells and sand are common here.
I think it would be ignorant to believe that sea levels won't change again. I do believe that in the grand scheme of things, humans are not mighty enough to destroy the earth. She is much older and more resiliant than we are. The earth will heal herself of what we do. If (when) there is another ice age, our population will decrease but survive and then we will have another go at it. Hopefully next time we will take better care.

Bike to the beach, hop on your sail boat, bike to the mountains and run a river in a kayak (yes, you can tow one behind a bike). Both you and the earth will be in better shape!

Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: Jake] #72986
04/19/06 06:14 PM
04/19/06 06:14 PM
Joined: Nov 2005
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“an island in the Pacific....
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Quote
Quote
10-25 meter rises


I've heard this before and I've seen it from some pretty reliable sources...but looking at a globe I find it difficult to fathom how the relative size of polar caps can raise the entire ocean level of the globe 25 meters (wikipedia says if it were all to melt, it would be 60 meters). How is this possible? The artic ice cap has already shrunk by over 20% since the 70's. Is everyone counting the ice below the surface too?
You have to include both polar ice caps and the various glaciers.


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Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: Jeff Peterson] #72987
04/19/06 07:21 PM
04/19/06 07:21 PM
Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 43
Falmouth, MA, USA
RTodd Offline
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Since I'm at Scripps Institution of Oceanography (one of the leaders in climate science), and one of the scientists in the aforementioned NOVA episode has his office about 100 meters from mine, I feel compelled to chime in (briefly) on this one.

It has certainly been more than two or three years since a scientific consensus about the reality of global warming was reached. Research into climate change (natural and anthropogenic) was prevelent by the early 1980's. Even before 1960, people like Dr. Charles Keeling (formerly of SIO) were monitoring the climate. His 'Keeling Curve', showing CO_2 levels atop Mauna Loa, Hawaii, is very well known and shows the increasing CO_2 levels in the past several decades. Of course, our knowledge of the Earth's climate increases all the time.

While there is scientific consensus about the reality of global warming, it is important to realize that climate scientists do not know everything, and there are points on which scientists disagree. Models are only as good as the theory behind them and the observations driving them, and two models can give very different results. (We can't even get the weather for next week right...think about how hard it is to figure out the global climate in 50-100 years.) Disagreement at this level is how science works. Various hypotheses are formed, tested, and upheld or rejected. With time, some hypotheses become so strongly supported by observation, theory and experiment that they rise to the level of scientific theories, which are, for all intents and purposes, facts.

It is a pity that larger acceptance of climate change as reality has taken so long. There is a problem, particularly in the US, of the general population refusing to accept what is considered to be scientific truth. The source of this problem, I believe, lies both with the public _and_ the scientists. As scientists, we certainly have a long way to go in communicating our findings beyond our small community. With that in mind, interested parties might wish to take a look at http://www.realclimate.org. I'm not affiliated with it, but it has proven to be a good source of scientifically accurate information and discussion. (Please note that controversial subjects are brought up, sometimes dealing with politics and science, so beware.) Also, a recent issue (perhaps the most recent issue) of Vanity Fair had a fun article showing the effects of sea level rise on areas like Martha's Vineyard (a classic sailing place, and hangout of Kennedy's et al.) and the Hamptons.


Robert Todd
Capricorn F18 #151
Falmouth, MA
Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: RTodd] #72988
04/19/06 07:35 PM
04/19/06 07:35 PM
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 5,582
“an island in the Pacific....
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“an island in the Pacific....
Quote
Vanity Fair had a fun article showing the effects of sea level rise on areas like Martha's Vineyard (a classic sailing place, and hangout of Kennedy's et al.) and the Hamptons.
If the Kennedy's get flooded out will the wind powered generators be built?


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Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: hobie1616] #72989
04/19/06 09:14 PM
04/19/06 09:14 PM
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ktown Offline
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Not just the Antarctic ice sheet (although that's a horror-movie scenario) - glaciers are falling off Greenland like never before, too.

Despite the damage or acceleration for which our society may be responsible, I'm inclined to share Sunny's perspective - in the course of ten thousand or ten million years, we can't be very important.

However, that doesn't mean we shouldn't be more sensitive and responsible now.

Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: ktown] #72990
04/19/06 10:29 PM
04/19/06 10:29 PM
Joined: Feb 2004
Posts: 1,012
South Australia
Darryl_Barrett Offline
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Humans and Lemmings, all the same.
We cannot hurt the earth in any major way. No matter what we do the earth will just take it in it's stride and cycle along through it and out the other side. Whether we, as the human race, or for that matter, all other forms of life are still here when it heals the scars that we give it doesn't really matter at all in the "scheme" of the "life" of the earth.
Once the dinosaurs ruled (for a long, long time), we have only been here for a few seconds of time by comparison. Dont think for one minute that our time as a species isnt under constant threat of annihilation at any moment, why do you think it is that we seem to want to speed up that process so much instead of legitimately finding an alternative?
If only a minute fraction of the resources that is spent annually on producing the means of killing our fellow humans was diverted into productive activities, our potential could be almost unlimited.
Lemmings, humans, is there really much difference?

Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: Darryl_Barrett] #72991
04/19/06 11:11 PM
04/19/06 11:11 PM
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 66
Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA
ReefedOne Offline
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Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA
Well darryl, you're certainly a cheery fellow from Down Under!

Hmmm... significant ocean rise... well, that would take care of the affordable real estate problem in S. Florida... bummer for the Scripps folks who are moving to their new site here, lol.

Everything south of Lake Okeechobee, the Keys, and even The Bahamas would be reefs. North of the Big O would be a chain of islands stretching up to Atlanta that might be fun to sail to.

Note: The Arctic icecap is not a problem, since it is floating, right? i.e. Archimedes' Principle, if an ice cube melts in a glass of water, the water level does not change, because the cube was made up of EXACTLY the amount of water it was displacing, Q.E.D. The ANTarctic cap, OTOH, is largely on land, so could be interesting. If penguins wash up in Miami, I am SO OUT OF HERE!

Hopefully this will reduce your anxieties by half, and allow you to return to worrying about a killer tsunami from Cumbre Viejo collapsing, or an asteroid collision.


Sunny: Bike to the beach, hop on your sail boat, bike to the mountains and run a river in a kayak (yes, you can tow one behind a bike). Both you and the earth will be in better shape!

That's just CRAZY talk! 'mer'cans have a God-given right to drive 8,000 lb. SUVs, gorge on fried foods, and celebrate their "prosperity" by developing cardiovascular disease! (At 5'11", 168#, I do NOT subscribe to this theory, lol.)

Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: steveh] #72992
04/20/06 03:38 AM
04/20/06 03:38 AM
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Posts: 9,582
North-West Europe
Wouter Offline
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As a systems engineer I believe humans are powerful enough these days to "trip the system", however I also believe that humans are too dumb or stupid to do anything about it.

Wouter


Wouter Hijink
Formula 16 NED 243 (one-off; homebuild)
The Netherlands
Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: Wouter] #72993
04/20/06 04:36 AM
04/20/06 04:36 AM
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Quote


As a systems engineer I believe humans are powerful enough these days to "trip the system", however I also believe that humans are too dumb or stupid to do anything about it.

Wouter


Fear and greed may be powerful enough motivation! When gas took it's first big jump, the sale of SUVs dropped 25%.

The mere threat of disrupted oil suplies sent the price per barrel over $70! The result is that last night I paid $2.97 at the pump.

Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: fin.] #72994
04/20/06 04:52 AM
04/20/06 04:52 AM
Joined: May 2003
Posts: 4,451
West coast of Norway
Rolf_Nilsen Offline
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Pete, that is still under half what I pay and have paid for the last 6 months at the pump. Yesterdays price was US$7.62 for a gallon here in the oil nation Norway..
(assuming one gallon equals 3.71 liters and with exchange rates from yahoo. When _will_ you stop using those imperial units btw.)

Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: Rolf_Nilsen] #72995
04/20/06 05:06 AM
04/20/06 05:06 AM
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 1,382
Essex, UK
Jalani Offline
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In the UK at present the average per gallon is $6.35 US.

Mind you, over 70% of that is tax for the Exchequer!


John Alani
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Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: Wouter] #72996
04/20/06 09:08 AM
04/20/06 09:08 AM
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 141
Panama City Beach, FL
steveh Offline
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Panama City Beach, FL
Quote

Sunny said:

The earth naturally has an ebb and flow. I live in the middle of South Carolina, about 2 hours from the shore and yet where I live was once beechfront property. Fossils of shells and sand are common here.
I think it would be ignorant to believe that sea levels won't change again. I do believe that in the grand scheme of things, humans are not mighty enough to destroy the earth. She is much older and more resiliant than we are. The earth will heal herself of what we do. If (when) there is another ice age, our population will decrease but survive and then we will have another go at it. Hopefully next time we will take better care.

Bike to the beach, hop on your sail boat, bike to the mountains and run a river in a kayak (yes, you can tow one behind a bike). Both you and the earth will be in better shape!



Quote
As a systems engineer I believe humans are powerful enough these days to "trip the system", however I also believe that humans are too dumb or stupid to do anything about it.

Wouter


I agree with the latter half of what Sunny said and the first half of what Wouter said. The rest I take issue with.

There are many areas that we have already dramatically changed. Off the top of my head: the Colorado River no longer flows into the Gulf of California, changing the salinity of the upper gulf, 20% of the Amazon rainforest is gone, resulting in a massize release of carbon and a change in solar albedo and local weather patterns and simulations of proposed tidal power generating plants using portions of the Bay of Fundy in Nova Scotia have shown tidal increases of 20% in Maine and changes in tides as far away as Boston. We can make significant local changes that we can see, measure and remedy if we chose.

Globally, our effects are not as easy to see, measure or remedy, but that does not mean that it can't be done. Saying that we are too stupid to fix it is as dangerous and fatalistic as anthropomorphizing or deifying a rock that happens to be our home, claiming immaterially that she can heal herself. We have taken global action on the ozone depletion problem and while it will take decades for the CFCs to work through the system, we can expect to see improvements within our childrens' lifetimes. Global remedies for global problems that we caused can happen. Why can't we do the same for greenhouse gases? Is it because the likelihood of skin cancer is more frightening than a few inches of sea level rise and some nebulous, unknown tipping point?

No, we can't hurt the Earth as a planet, but we can hurt the Earth as a home and that is what we need to change.

Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: steveh] #72997
04/20/06 09:12 AM
04/20/06 09:12 AM
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West coast of Norway
Rolf_Nilsen Offline
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No, we can't hurt the Earth as a planet, but we can hurt the Earth as a home and that is what we need to change.


Bingo!

Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: steveh] #72998
04/20/06 09:15 AM
04/20/06 09:15 AM

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Quote


No, we can't hurt the Earth as a planet, but we can hurt the Earth as a home and that is what we need to change.


Very well said Steve.

Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: ] #72999
04/20/06 09:53 AM
04/20/06 09:53 AM
Joined: Jun 2001
Posts: 833
St. Louis, MO,
Mike Hill Offline
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Global Warming is a fact. However I don't believe it has anything to do with Greenhouse Gases. I've looked at numerous charts on sun spot activity and they all line up perfectly with global warming and cooling. Imagine that the sun causing global warming?

I can't believe all the junk science thrown around on TV. I guess it's good for ratings. If you are really interested I've included some links below to look at.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/sun_output_030320.html

http://www.intellicast.com/DrDewpoint/Library/1186/

http://www.news.harvard.edu/gazette/1997/11.06/BrighteningSuni.html

Mike Hill
www.stlouiscats.com



Mike Hill
N20 #1005
Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: steveh] #73000
04/20/06 10:27 AM
04/20/06 10:27 AM
Joined: Jun 2001
Posts: 9,582
North-West Europe
Wouter Offline
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Quote

Why can't we do the same for greenhouse gases? ... No, we can't hurt the Earth as a planet, but we can hurt the Earth as a home and that is what we need to change.



I'm of the Kyoto generation. There is always some powerful nitwit who thinks his short term gains are more important then long term global benefits. And presto Kyoto was dead as a treaty. Currently the same things is being done with the non-proliferation treaty for exactly the same reasons, because some powerful nitwit feels he can score some short term personal gains.

That is why humanity as a whole will always dependent on the harbour wall to turn the ship around. And that is stupid in my book. Or at least that is how I see it.

Wouter


Wouter Hijink
Formula 16 NED 243 (one-off; homebuild)
The Netherlands
Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: Mike Hill] #73001
04/20/06 11:12 AM
04/20/06 11:12 AM
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 141
Panama City Beach, FL
steveh Offline
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Panama City Beach, FL
Quote
Global Warming is a fact. However I don't believe it has anything to do with Greenhouse Gases. I've looked at numerous charts on sun spot activity and they all line up perfectly with global warming and cooling. Imagine that the sun causing global warming?
[Linked Image]


Interesting graph. Especially interesting is how the land temperature plot appears to preceed that of the solar activity plot over a good portion of those 300 years. Generally, a system with any sort of inertia will have the cause preceeding the effect. I also have a problem understanding how a plot of cycle length versus time means anything. The solar cycle length in 1800 was 26 years, yet about 10 years later the cycle length is 25 years? This makes sense? Statistical windowing can be useful for finding patterns in noisy data, but windowing time over time doesn't make sense.

I wondered what the authors were thinking, so I Googled Baliunas and Soon and found that the report was done for the George C. Marshall Institute. I found several (many) papers addressing this topic, but nothing with this plot and an explanation.

However, it's always fun to impugn "unbiased" "research" "institutes," so....

Their mission statement follows, emphasis mine.

Quote
The George C. Marshall Institute was established in 1984 as a nonprofit 501(c)(3) corporation to conduct technical assessments of scientific issues with an impact on public policy.

In every area of public policy, from national defense, to the environment, to the economy, decisions are shaped by developments in and arguments about science and technology. The need for accurate and impartial technical assessments has never been greater. However, even purely scientific appraisals are often politicized and misused by interest groups.

The Marshall Institute seeks to counter this trend by providing policymakers with rigorous, clearly written and unbiased technical analyses on a range of public policy issues.
Through briefings to the press, publication programs, speaking tours and public forums, the Institute seeks to preserve the integrity of science and promote scientific literacy.


Now, one would think that a purely unbiased, scientific institute would likely publish papers that would fall somewhere in the middle of the laissez-faire industry line and the hard-core environmentalist line. However, looking at their list of publications on the environment, we see that most of the shots are taken at the environmetal groups and conservationist theories.

Additionally, they support a position that they call "civic environmentalism" whereby government regulation merely points to problems and the free-market would provide for "the actual work of environmental protection up to collaborative efforts between industry and local governments." Personally, I trust the free market to make me money, not look after my or anyone else's well being. I also don't trust disparate local governments to stand up to the unified front of national industry groups.

I'm not saying that solar maximums don't contribute to global warming, but it is interesting to see a scientist (Richard Willson in the article in the Space.com link) that accepts a solar cycle contribution but cautions against discounting industrial pollution as a significant factor.


Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: Jeff Peterson] #73002
04/20/06 11:43 AM
04/20/06 11:43 AM
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 169
Upstate, South Carolina
SunnyZ Offline
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Upstate, South Carolina
I am most concerned with the environment my sons will live in. I am frustrated that the human race has technology to correct their transgressions on the earth but simply don't act.
I have heard that evil prevails when good men do nothing. That is how I feel. I do try to do my little part. (Being raised by some good old fashioned dope smoking hippies helps keep that in the front of my mind.) But I still have to use the technology that is available to me. If I could afford energy choices that were ecological I would use them.
The problem is huge but I feel like the little things I do are worth while.

How do you eat an elephant? one bite at a time.

Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: SunnyZ] #73003
04/20/06 11:48 AM
04/20/06 11:48 AM
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 5,582
“an island in the Pacific....
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“an island in the Pacific....
Regular on Maui is $3.39 this week. Even with the state regulating the price we expect to see the price jump $.14 next week.


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