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Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: steveh] #73004
04/20/06 01:49 PM
04/20/06 01:49 PM
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Annapolis,MD
Keith Offline
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Global Warming is a fact. However I don't believe it has anything to do with Greenhouse Gases. I've looked at numerous charts on sun spot activity and they all line up perfectly with global warming and cooling. Imagine that the sun causing global warming?
[Linked Image]


Interesting graph. Especially interesting is how the land temperature plot appears to preceed that of the solar activity plot over a good portion of those 300 years. Generally, a system with any sort of inertia will have the cause preceeding the effect. I also have a problem understanding how a plot of cycle length versus time means anything. The solar cycle length in 1800 was 26 years, yet about 10 years later the cycle length is 25 years? This makes sense? Statistical windowing can be useful for finding patterns in noisy data, but windowing time over time doesn't make sense.

I wondered what the authors were thinking, so I Googled Baliunas and Soon and found that the report was done for the George C. Marshall Institute. I found several (many) papers addressing this topic, but nothing with this plot and an explanation.

However, it's always fun to impugne "unbiased" "research" "institutes," so....

Their mission statement follows, emphasis mine.

Quote
The George C. Marshall Institute was established in 1984 as a nonprofit 501(c)(3) corporation to conduct technical assessments of scientific issues with an impact on public policy.

In every area of public policy, from national defense, to the environment, to the economy, decisions are shaped by developments in and arguments about science and technology. The need for accurate and impartial technical assessments has never been greater. However, even purely scientific appraisals are often politicized and misused by interest groups.

The Marshall Institute seeks to counter this trend by providing policymakers with rigorous, clearly written and unbiased technical analyses on a range of public policy issues.
Through briefings to the press, publication programs, speaking tours and public forums, the Institute seeks to preserve the integrity of science and promote scientific literacy.


Now, one would think that a purely unbiased, scientific institute would likely publish papers that would fall somewhere in the middle of the laissez-faire industry line and the hard-core environmentalist line. However, looking at their list of publications on the environment, we see that most of the shots are taken at the environmetal groups and conservationist theories.

Additionally, they support a position that they call "civic environmentalism" whereby government regulation merely points to problems and the free-market would provide for "the actual work of environmental protection up to collaborative efforts between industry and local governments." Personally, I trust the free market to make me money, not look after my or anyone else's well being. I also don't trust disparate local governments to stand up to the unified front of national industry groups.

I'm not saying that solar maximums don't contribute to global warming, but it is interesting to see a scientist (Richard Willson in the article in the Space.com link) that accepts a solar cycle contribution but cautions against discounting industrial pollution as a significant factor.



Solar cycle predictions are a very interesting and as of yet not completely understood science. Various methods through the years have been tried to predict the length and severity of the cycles, only to be undone by what actually happens on the next cycle. A fellow that works for my company is deeply involved in this, and one of things noted was that there is some sort of predictor in Earth phenomena that can indicate the severity of the next cycle. Very weird, because it might imply that the Earth is affecting the Sun's cycles. A recent study that was in the news seemed to be able to explain that link a little better, in a way that ties it back to previously unaccounted for activity on the Sun. It's a very interesting topic to my industry, because it affects how we fly spacecraft.

As for CO2 - sat in on a presentation where the analyst (from a project that measured such things) presented measurement observations correlating the increase of CO2 to the number of barrels of oil sold. There were also interesting graphs showing the levels fluctuate in the hemispheres on a seasonal basis - when it's winter in the northern hemisphere there is less vegetation to soak up the CO2, so levels rise, opposite happens in the summer.

For me, on the logic side is this - the oil buried in the Earth contains carbon, the burning of this produces carbon dioxide. We dig up and burn a huge amount of this every day, and demandis only going up. Carbon dioxide is a known greenhouse gas. The tonnage of it our activities are pumping into the atmosphere has to have an affect. To me it's logical and inescapable.

Man's affect on the weather part II - cities and developed areas have been shown to affect local weather patterns. The pavement and buildings and all collect heat from the Sun. This heat warms the air around the city which then rises, causing air to flow inward from outer regions. Local winds and storms are all affected by this.

-- Have You Seen This? --
Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: Keith] #73005
04/20/06 02:24 PM
04/20/06 02:24 PM
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The tonnage of it our activities are pumping into the atmosphere has to have an affect. To me it's logical and inescapable.


Well, following that logic, if we have to get rid of all our gas burning cars because of global warming, we'd better figure out how to put a big ole plug in all those active volcanos that dump massive amounts of greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere all the time.

Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: MauganN20] #73006
04/20/06 03:14 PM
04/20/06 03:14 PM
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Yes, the cars goes over to fuel cells running on ethanol real soon now I hope. You can even drink the fuel from those in a pinch Maugh, should suit you well. Imagine growing and destilling your own 'fuel', legally.

Volcanos are just another excuse to not take responsibility for what is happening tough.

Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: MauganN20] #73007
04/20/06 03:19 PM
04/20/06 03:19 PM
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Annapolis,MD
Keith Offline
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The tonnage of it our activities are pumping into the atmosphere has to have an affect. To me it's logical and inescapable.


Well, following that logic, if we have to get rid of all our gas burning cars because of global warming, we'd better figure out how to put a big ole plug in all those active volcanos that dump massive amounts of greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere all the time.


Actually, what you say does not follow from that logic. The point was whether we're adding to it or not. To me it's inescapable that we are. But that's the irony, isn't it? We could cut our emissions to zero and be done in by a bunch of volcanos. Or they could go dormant on their own and we could continue the way we are and do it to ourselves without help. We could say that we'll get hit with a meteor anyway at some point so why treat the place nice? Because maybe you won't get hit. Welcome to the uncertainties of life on Earth. Natural processes have been going on, heating and cooling have gone on, tremendous calamities have happened. What hasn't been going on is mankind's contribution on top of it. If there's a fire already burning - do you throw wood on it if you're already uncomfortable from the heat?

Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: SunnyZ] #73008
04/20/06 03:57 PM
04/20/06 03:57 PM
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It is all about power ... and fear.

Currently the dumb people control the (state) power in some very important places. The good ones are too scared to stick their heads out because we are all to individualistic to stand up for each other and because we are too afraid to be called socialist, anti-semitic, anti-American, bleeding heart liberal or simply naive. This means that power can "neutralize" each one of us; ... one by one. And they do.


That and the uncureable (self defeating) knee-jerk reaction of ordinary people.

[Linked Image]

Wouter

Attached Files
73838-js040906.gif (23 downloads)
Last edited by Wouter; 04/20/06 04:03 PM.

Wouter Hijink
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The Netherlands
Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: Wouter] #73009
04/20/06 04:33 PM
04/20/06 04:33 PM
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we all know how well Dutch Cartoons reflect the will of the people around the world :P

Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: MauganN20] #73010
04/20/06 05:13 PM
04/20/06 05:13 PM

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That cartoon doesn't look very Dutch ... for one thing, it's in English. Looks American to me. From what little I remember of my last trip to Amsterdam, the Dutch are pretty assimilated to global English-speaking culture, but they still write cartoons in their native language, like the Danish. Now the Swedes are another story - I don't think Swedish is spoken at all anymore, except maybe in court or on farms or something - so maybe it's a Swedish cartoon. But I doubt it.

Steve, thanks again for your thoughtful posts.

Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: MauganN20] #73011
04/20/06 05:27 PM
04/20/06 05:27 PM
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we all know how well Dutch Cartoons reflect the will of the people around the world :P

www.slowpokecomics.com A very American institution


Dermot
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Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: MauganN20] #73012
04/20/06 05:38 PM
04/20/06 05:38 PM
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Falmouth, MA, USA
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Since the solar cycle has come up, I'll add a few things about it. Yes, the energy output of the sun varies on several time scales. Since the sun is the primary source of energy for the Earth, those changes can and do have an effect on the planet. The assertion, however, that changes in the solar cycle eliminate greenhouse gases as a cause of 'global warming' (more on the quotes later) is not justified.

On first glance at the plots above, I immediately took issue with the lag in time of the solar signal compared to the temperature signal. A cause must precede an effect. Moreover it is clear in the plots that the averaging in time of the temperature data is not the same as the averaging of the solar cycle data. This makes conclusions drawn from the graphs without further explanation very suspect.

The report cited about solar cycles brings up another point which has already be touched upon. The source of any report must be considered when judging the report. I know nothing of the Marshall Institute beyond what was stated above, but there is a strong likely hood that research published by this institute has not undergone the rigorous peer review process that characterizes scientific publications. While the peer review process is not perfect (eg. S.Korean cloning paper in Nature, or maybe it was Science), it is quite good. My caution to everyone is to make sure that you get your information from an appropriate source and consider any bias of that source.

Why did I put 'global warming' in quotes? The term is an unfortunate misnomer. 'Climate change' is much better. While the mean temperature of the Earth may increase (what kind of average are we referring to anyway? Annual, spatial?) Some regions will be colder (eg. Western Europe), some wetter, some dryer, some warmer.

One other thing...some one pointed out that the melting of the Arctic ice sheet wouldn't have an effect on sea level. That is reasonably accurate. However, the change in salinity in the North Atlantic resulting from that melting has the potential to disrupt deep water formation. The result changes in the deep thermohaline (density-driven) circulation of the world ocean could be quite dramatic. Notably, this oceanic 'conveyor belt' is largely responsible for sequestering atmospheric CO_2 (from volcanoes, SUV's and humans who keep on exhaling) in the deep ocean, slowing the rise in levels of greenhouse gases. The entire system is a delicate balance, and the system is nonlinear, meaning it has multiple equilibrium states and the potential to rapidly shift between them. The evidence is certainly mounting that we humans have the power to disrupt that balance.

For those who trust the Earth to fix itself, you're in luck. A number models I've seen suggest that if we really screw things up, the Earth can return to an equilibrium state (not necessarily the one we enjoy now) in something on the order of a few hundred to thousand years. So for those planning to be around in the year 3000, I'd love to know how things turn out. Humans are kind of wimpy when it comes to dealing with nature at its worst, so maybe the **** would be a better source to rely on for that info. Personally, I'll keep hoping that we come to our collective senses and lessen our impact on the planet.


Robert Todd
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Falmouth, MA
Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: MauganN20] #73013
04/20/06 05:46 PM
04/20/06 05:46 PM
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Panama City Beach, FL
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Let's discuss Wouter's attitude, but not in a Maugan Kneejerkin' way.

Which post does not fit with the others?

1.
Quote
I take a slightly relaxed view to this

1/3rd of the Netherlands is already living between 0 and 5 mtr under sea level. I don't think an additional 1 or 2 feet will matter much in this scheme of things. Same approach as we have been doing for centuries, just 3 feet higher then before. Besides we are a wealthy nation and we can pay the additional costs associated to this.


2.
Quote
As a systems engineer I believe humans are powerful enough these days to "trip the system", however I also believe that humans are too dumb or stupid to do anything about it.

Wouter


3.
Quote
I'm of the Kyoto generation. There is always some powerful nitwit who thinks his short term gains are more important then long term global benefits. And presto Kyoto was dead as a treaty. Currently the same things is being done with the non-proliferation treaty for exactly the same reasons, because some powerful nitwit feels he can score some short term personal gains.

That is why humanity as a whole will always dependent on the harbour wall to turn the ship around. And that is stupid in my book. Or at least that is how I see it.

Wouter


4.
Quote
It is all about power ... and fear.

Currently the dumb people control the (state) power in some very important places. The good ones are too scared to stick their heads out because we are all to individualistic to stand up for each other and because we are too afraid to be called socialist, anti-semitic, anti-American, bleeding heart liberal or simply naive. This means that power can "neutralize" each one of us; ... one by one. And they do.


That and the uncureable (self defeating) knee-jerk reaction of ordinary people.


If Wouter's posts in this thread were includes on a standardized aptitude test, then I would say that post #1 is the post that does not fit. It expresses a confident optimism and strength of a group of people holding back the North Sea for centuries. No small feat. In fact, judging by documentaries that I've seen, I would be inclined to call their dike system an engineering Wonder of the World.

The latter three posts express a fatalistic submission to powerful, short-sighted, self-interested idiots. I recognize the implied shot in #4, but doesn't the Dutch population include their share of dumb, powerful nitwits looking out for self-gain, or does living behind a wall like they do purge that attitude of self-interest over society's gain? Can't it be argued that the rise of Reason and Self-governance is an expression of an unwillingness to submit to powerful, short-sighted, self-interested (let's add inbred and disingenuous, too) idiots? Why be pessimistic and give up now only a thousand years into the process? Personally, I would love to see Ayn Rand's Atlas Shrugged come to pass. Let the rich, self-interested "leaders" shrug, take their toys and go home. John Galt has inflicted enough laissez-faire misery and there will always be someone to fill his shoes. Perhaps someone that has observed his mistakes.

Sorry, I'm getting loopy.

Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: MauganN20] #73014
04/20/06 07:15 PM
04/20/06 07:15 PM
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Sorry Maugan, this summary suggest man emits 150x the amount of CO2 than the average amount from Volcanoes. SO2 is also more than 50% from man.

Man vs Volcanoes

Quote
Quote
The tonnage of it our activities are pumping into the atmosphere has to have an affect. To me it's logical and inescapable.


Well, following that logic, if we have to get rid of all our gas burning cars because of global warming, we'd better figure out how to put a big ole plug in all those active volcanos that dump massive amounts of greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere all the time.


Mike Dobbs
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Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: steveh] #73015
04/20/06 10:16 PM
04/20/06 10:16 PM
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Earth is blue. The sea is blue. My eyes are blue. Mars is red.

Four statements, one does not fit, but no conflicts there.

A generalisation ("humans aren't taking care of our home planet") may be different from a more specific situation ("the dutch may cope with higher see levels") without conflict: they may be able to handle higher sea levels but unable to cope with the environment problem as human beings.

With time we will all change our behaviours and ourselves to face this challenge. The big question in my opinion is how long it will take. If the planet changes faster, we might be unable to change soon enough.


Luiz
Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: Luiz] #73016
04/21/06 04:20 AM
04/21/06 04:20 AM
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One of the most disturbing things I have read about is the politicization of science. It seems as though dissenting views sometimes get supressed and the scientists ostracized. GOvernment grants and postion in a university can often create a conforming behavior. Unfortunately the scientists offering a dissenting opinion to the 'accepted' theory of 'global warming' are now the ones being put on the sidelines. Without unbiased science, we are in for some potentially bad choices in politics based on technology.

Certainly the climate is changing; its been changing forever. Right now its warming, but its still cooler than it has been in recent past (50-60 years). Its also warmer than it has been in the past 250 years (mini ice age). Is human activity involved? Certainly. HOw much and how much we can effect the climate is certainly open for debate. Us shutting off our carbon emissions may be like pour a cup of water on a bonfire; not nearly enough. The point is we just don't know.

That lack of knowledge is not reason to just take no action--we should do what we can to control our emissions, but it is also not reason to dramatically harm our economy by adopting certain measures as outlined in the Kyoto treaty. That treaty was ignored by the CLinton administration and the BUsh administration. Its standards have also not been met by all the European countries that signed it.

In the end, humans, although dumb as Wouter thinks they are, will adjust, both to the climate change and to the need to change their habits as we go along and we will adapt to what we can't control and will perservere. Its what we humans do.

David
H20 781

Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: Rolf_Nilsen] #73017
04/21/06 06:50 AM
04/21/06 06:50 AM
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Rolf:
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. When _will_ you stop using those imperial units btw.)


What Imperial unit, I ain't in Canada!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_the_Imperial_and_US_customary_systems#Volume

Besides, without the "English" system, there would be no hogshead of beer, hence no "Hog'shead Saloon" and no "Hog'shead/Keys 100"! I mean, really, where would you go to have a few cold ones? The "Metric Unit Drinking Facility"!? You can't drink in a place like that!

Seriously, I'm worried more about "Avian Flu" than global warming. Both are serious concerns, but the "flu" is more imminent.

Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: SunnyZ] #73018
04/21/06 07:05 AM
04/21/06 07:05 AM
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How do you eat an elephant? …one bite at a time.


Shortly, I will be installing a passive hot water system and buying a large solar panel.

Also, this may be of interest to some of you:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaia_theory_%28science%29

We could DO something, instead of just talking. Talking being an important first step.

Found this in a quick search this morning:

http://www.homepower.com/files/beginner/SolarHotWaterBasics.pdf


Last edited by Tikipete; 04/21/06 07:43 AM.
Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: MauganN20] #73019
04/21/06 07:49 AM
04/21/06 07:49 AM
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This shows my cases exactly. The cartoons weren't Dutch and the protests were smallest in Holland as a result of these DANISH cartoons as well.

Like I said earlier one can always dependent on dumb knee-jerk reactions of the masses. Maybe I should add this time ""uninformed as well.

Wouter



Wouter Hijink
Formula 16 NED 243 (one-off; homebuild)
The Netherlands
exactly spot on Luiz ! [Re: Luiz] #73020
04/21/06 08:06 AM
04/21/06 08:06 AM
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exactly spot on Luiz !

I feel the Dutch can handle the rising water level pretty effectively, don't know about other peoples. However human impact on Earth goes further then just rising sea water levels. Whole food chains or economic chains may be distrubted by global warming that ALSO causes water surface rise. I'm not too sure about handling the other effect.

Wouter


Wouter Hijink
Formula 16 NED 243 (one-off; homebuild)
The Netherlands
Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: David] #73021
04/21/06 08:09 AM
04/21/06 08:09 AM
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Quote

In the end, humans, although dumb as Wouter thinks they are, will adjust, both to the climate change and to the need to change their habits as we go along and we will adapt to what we can't control and will perservere. Its what we humans do.



And this adjust is called WAR !

Wouter


Wouter Hijink
Formula 16 NED 243 (one-off; homebuild)
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Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: RTodd] #73022
04/21/06 08:14 AM
04/21/06 08:14 AM
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Ahhh, a breath of fresh air !

Great to see a well written short explanation, scientifically sound, of the situation at hand.

It is very rare to encounter that these days and I work on a university !

Wouter


Wouter Hijink
Formula 16 NED 243 (one-off; homebuild)
The Netherlands
Re: Now That Global Warming is Considered Real... [Re: fin.] #73023
04/21/06 09:50 AM
04/21/06 09:50 AM
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Quote
Seriously, I'm worried more about "Avian Flu" than global warming. Both are serious concerns, but the "flu" is more imminent.


Not to be too blunt about it, but this can seriously reduce the human output of C02 by "cutting" the world population dramatically. Pete is right, it's iminent and there's not alot anyone can do about it.


John H16, H14
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