Hi Rolf,
While I understand your theory, there still remains the mysterious few who manage to sail faster / better than most of us mere mortals, while not doing as much preparation or training as you might expect them to do to be as good as they are. I`ve seen a few of these guys, some sail very infrequently yet appear in the top end of the fleet without explanation, I believe they have a feel for sailing that we might only gain by a lot of training and practice, but they have it without having to do the same training - so if they put in the same effort as us mere mortals, will STILL end up being faster / better than the average weekend sailor can aspire to. I would call this "talent", and believe it plays a large role in how successful a sailor can be if he applies his mind to it.
I have a friend who is sailing mad - he trains and sails every opportunity he gets, and is a very good sailor, but he is consistently in the middle of the fleet, whichever boat he is sailing. He spends a lot of time tuning his boat, getting it right, and will appear mid-fleet on most occasions - he has flashes of brilliance, and would win many 30knot plus races, if the RC didn`t pull the plug on those, as he excels in strong wind. I would call this guy the average weekend racer. He is by many accounts a better sailor than many of the sailors who beat him, if that makes sense at all.
You also get the sailors (and I`ve seen this) who are top 10 in a 100 boat fleet, who behave rather oddly. One bought a Hobie 16, and found the streamers on his mainsail and jib annoying while learning to sail, so he removed them - all of them. He then placed 6th at Hobie Nationals (89 boats) in his first year sailing, and it was his first regatta. This doesn`t easily fit the idea that training and preparation ensures success, and talent is a myth. He then only raced at Nationals for many years and was consistently top 10, while others trained, raced every regatta, and failed to make the Gold fleet.
Others like Paul Lagesse, an ex-Hobie 14 sailor, stopped sailing cats in favour of kitesurfing and windsurfing many years ago. He sailed the SA Champs as a qualifying event for the Worlds, found crew at the Worlds who he had not sailed with before, and placed 5th. He hadn`t really campaigned seriously for years before with the same crew, which many others, who failed to even qualify, had done. I beleive this is talent.
It may be sad to admit it, but I will probably never be at that level, no matter how hard I try - which is why it`s important not to lose touch with the fact that we do this all for fun.