I would say that is the positive asessment on the risk. The negative is death of a formula class. The only precedent is the B-class and the selection of the Tornado.
This really is a question on psychology and manufacturer spin. Will the percieved advantages of owning a olympic one-design in a formula fleet outweight the disadvantage of being locked in to one-design rules? Only way to find out is to actually see what happens if one of those designs are selected. Personally I think the possibility of participation in the world cup events, olympic status and mingling with the rock stars will be more than enough to do damage to a formula fleet if choosen.
On the other hand, there might be something completely different like a M20 with banana boards that ends up as the olympic multihull. Or the Tornado gets another go (that is a fantastic boat, also for mixed sailors)

You have forgotten the versatility of the F16 class unlike the T's and B Class, not all sailors want to sail with the rockstars, not everyone wants to sail always with a crew, an awful lot though want to be able to launch a light weight cat either as a single hander or with a crew and compete at the front, at their local club race.

The boat that would pose a problem to the F16 class would be if a fully compliant boat became the Olympic boat and some of the new designs such as the Falcon and Raptor are good enough for that role.

I see your point but consider what the backbone of an ISAF international class is made of, and how that backbone is created.

I dont want to contribute to creating a problem where there is no problem currently so I'll keep it quiet.

There is another precedent. The Europe is/was a one design spin off of the moth. The difference however was the Europe was already 30 years old and out dated with respect to moths when it went Olympic in 92. I guess it would be like picking the Tiger.

already got that t-shirt.

I see it difficult for a 18" or even 20" design to be a mixed boat. Mean weight for a man in Europe is about 75 kg? For a woman 55? This would give a combined weight of 130 kg. From my experience on both boats, for a H16 this is perfect, on a Tiger/F18 with the big sails this is not enough (for 15 knots+). Eastern countries even will have difficulties getting up to 130 kg. How can a Tornado or other 20" cats be an option for a mixed crew? If I remember right, optimal weight for the T was around 145? I think it should be easy to get close to ideal weight for a lot of teams, especially young ones!

The lobby stats, as expected. Follow the link to the Star website or read the transcription (the blue text and bold were added):

ISAF Excludes Men's Keelboat for 2016
By Bill Allen , ISCYRA President
Nov 15, 2010, 21:58

At the recent International Sailing Federation Annual Conference in Athens, Council voted to accept a slate of events that does not include a men’s keelboat. In a 19-16 vote, a 10 event slate was tentatively approved encompassing:
• Men’s and women’s sail boards or kite boards
• Men’s and women’s 1-person dinghy
• Men’s and women’s 2-person skiffs
• Mixed 2-person dinghy
• Mixed 2-person multihull
• Men’s heavyweight dinghy
• Women’s keelboat

A final vote to confirm these events will be taken in May, 2011 at the ISAF mid-year meeting. The Laser, Laser Radial, Finn, mixed 470, and Elliott 6m were approved as equipment for their respective events. The remaining equipment (classes) will be selected based on “evaluation trials”.

This slate of events was recommended by the Events Committee, which considered a list of events, including keelboats, developed by the ISAF Olympic Commission. From the discussion during the week in Athens, it was clear that the Olympic Commission and many Council representatives wanted to move toward increasing the number of high speed sport boats for better television and Internet coverage.

The Star class fully supports the ISAF decision-making process and the eventual outcome. We understand and appreciate many of the challenges ISAF faces in making our sport more attractive to the media and we believe the Star can make unique and valuable contributions in this area.

The Class had a strong delegation in Athens to argue the benefits of keelboats as athletic sport boats and their value to media presentation. Star Class Vice Commodore Harry Adler from 2016 Olympic host Brazil (and also first sponsor of the Grael brothers, father of two olympic medalists in Star and Soling, former council member, etc.), International Vice President Claude Bonanni, Executive Director Barbara Vosbury, Athletes representative Mark Reynolds, and Class measurer John Koopman spent long hours discussing our great class with ISAF attendees.

There are two arguments that seem most compelling. First and foremost, keelboats are where many of the heroes of our sport compete. Star Class champions are among the most recognizable names, and excluding them from Olympic competition is denying the media the established stars of the sport. Second, one of the objectives of the Olympic Commission is to have “diversity of physiques;” yet all of the other boats have very narrow weight ranges. Other than the Finn, all male competitors need to be less than 85 kilos.

Over the next several months we'll continue to work closely with ISAF in a positive and constructive manner as we continue to attempt to convince ISAF Council members that keelboats should be represented in the 2016 Olympic Games. Members are also encouraged to contact their Member National Authority (MNA) officials or ISAF Council members to argue the benefits of including keelboats.

Regardless of the final outcome of the 2016 Olympic event selection process, we will continue to thrive as a class and move forward. The Star is the premier one-design racing keel boat in the world and for 100 years Star sailors have led the way in advancing the sport of competitive sailing. Our 2010 European Championship set a class attendance record with 140 entrants. We possess more talent, resources, and commitment than ever before in our history.

Bill is a class act and represents his constituents very well. I enjoyed meeting him and look forward to seeing him again in May.

Yes he is. I have met him while I competed in many star regattas. I am probably a very rare active Cat sailor and Star sailor. I would love to see them both in the games!

JW, for the next meeting, we need to get you guys some T-shirts, hats or something:

5 and 5

I can even hear a chant...

Mike

May sound silly, but US Sailing actually made up lapel buttons for "5/5" and wore them, passed them out, etc. Bill is (of course) a big fan, too.

Would someone 'argue the benefits of including keel boats', in particular 'woman's keel boat match racing'?

The biggest benefit in including male keel boat is it makes a better case for split male and female cats. Multihullers should support the Star over the finn for this reason.

+1

An apparent Paul Henderson leak posted on the front page of Sailing Anarchy this morning:

Hope that someone listens

5 / 5 might well happen yet

Leaving open the question.... What is the modern Hobie 16?

IMO, everyone's boat favorite boat selection choice is dismissing this major factor... the simple minded boat.

What would the world look like if the Hobie Wave is selected for the Olympics AND we get men's and women's single handed cats?

Gender equity... check.
Individual athlete focus.... check
Multihull Check
Affordable, Popular, Low entry barrier for non sailing nations. Check.
instantly recognizable by the world... Check... More people have probably sailed a wave at a resort over the past 5 years then have sailed a performance cat... Hobie 16 on up.

hmmm... down load Beatles tune... revolution from itunes.... hmmm.

I just want my iOS 4.2 dammit. I'm done with Apple as soon as someone builds a reasonably competitive/functioning products (and when I'm up for a new phone). I'm tired of stuff not working and nobody addressing it and this "mysterious" marketing crap they have going on. I've got a $1500 head unit in my truck and an iPhone 4 that won't automatically connect or stay connected after a manual connection through a simple bluetooth connection - the previous iOS system worked just fine.

Sorry, now back to your regularly scheduled program....

Jake, give this a read
Newsweek October 11, 2010

I'd heard that he wrote this before the meeting in Athens. It isn't very surprising; he's been pretty consistent. I'm glad he concludes there should be two multihull events, but he really doesn't have much reasoning behind it, other than to say again that he likes cats because there are "no kinetics," which is an incorrect assertion. So, yay! He agrees with us! And, Boo! He doesn't understand why...