I think out of your two options listed what will happen is #1. It's already happening for distance racing.

With respect to the sails and other things, I worry about a price effective source of the masts. One bad launch day at Tybee and your boat could be an insurance write-off. Will performance support the alum or carbon stick with the new sails? Both? If we break a mast, what will our source of masts be?

The last price quote I heard for a new N-20 was also pushing the $30k mark (carbon mast contributing significantly?). Are we hoping for significant class rebirth so that new boats will be purchased, or are we just trading the old boats? Is anybody considering the purchase of a new N-20 (given the price comparison to the F-20)? A thing to ponder here is that by the time the new suite of sails is complete two things will have happened - 1) our boats will be several years older and 2) the f-18s will have advanced their sail plan by at least two iterations.