OK - that wasn't fair of me so I re-read your post. I have the following comments.
Jake's proposal that statistics will fine tune a measurement rating is merely a dream because the amount of data needed is just not out there to resolve small performance differences.
Portsmouth is reasonably accurate today. Even if we couldn't get more data by making collection and calculation easier, there is more than enough data available to make a measurement based system incredibly more accurate.
Even if the new Hobie F18 is a bit faster... Handicap racing will never measure the speed improvement due to the noise of boat racing against a Nacra 20 or a Blade F16.
Actually, yes it will. The difference will be small but statistics are statistics. If the new Hobie F18 gets around the course faster, it will show in the performance data. Why do you think it will not?
He presumes that the measurement rating table is not accurate and requires some fine tuning with statisitcs.
To support this notion, he should at least identify boats in the measurement ratings that need some fine tuning with the performance data relative to each other. The sailors who use Texel or SCHRS are not out their complaining.
Mark, neither system is as accurate as it can be. Have you ever raced monohulls under a measurement based system? It's awful. The system sucks so badly that they have local measurement modifications that are established by other yacht clubs to hedge the local mods for different boats based on the political atmosphere. It's ridiculous. If you're not hearing the complaints, you're not listening closely enough.
My view, is that the rating systems are about as accurate as you are likely to get. The differences are how they deal with changes and new designs in time. Measurement rules have a clear advantage.
Well..gosh...then why change a thing if they're as accurate as they can be? Please show me the accuracy advantage of the measurement system - you've not provided one piece of evidence. I do agree that a measurement system can respond more quickly to new designs but I also agree that portsmouth can better respond to the small refinements in boat design that the measurement system cannot - which is exactly why I propose a marriage of the two systems.
There is a reason the ratings don't use several decimal places in the tables.
Yes, you're right. Texel does not use ANY decimal places because it is a measurement based system that realizes it's inaccuracies. Why do you think Portsmouth USES decimal places? Because it's more accurate me thinks.
It's a lot easier to get the data on a boat class measurments once then continually collect race results. If you get creative and change your sail ... then pay the 20 bucks and get it independently measured for your personal rating certificate.
So you think everyone's just going to pony up $20 for a measurement when they get a new main? you're in the dreamasphere there.
The latest design by Ashy may be faster... but won't be measured using Portsmouth ratings of different class boats.
Why not? If you are suggesting that it is because a top a-cat sailor racing with a top a-cat mainsail won't be racing handicap very often then I agree with that sentiment...so what? A marriage of the two systems wouldn't care.
I can't believe I'm saying this - but where's Wouter in this discussino? He and I were working on a combined system to overcome the shortcomings of both systems about four years ago and had started the beginnings of a website before he pissed me off over something trivial.
