Not trying to evade anything. If I think I have a 60% chance of making it - I have a better chance of crossing cleanly than not making it. I think you are getting caught up on my percentages. Consider, for instance, the phrase "50/50". This generally means it could go either way. If I determined that I had a 50/50 chance of clearing a boat on a cross, I have determined that I have an equal chance of making it as not making it. I probably wouldn't take that chance. 70% means that I have a very good chance of making it....I probably would go for it if the other consequences were low.

The thing is that you don't seem to understand is that this IS part of the rules. Otherwise, there wouldn't be a need for the rule. This is also the very commonly accepted way to race. I understand if someone really wants to get across my bow and they're close that they may go for it. If they don't make it, I steer down, hail "protest sucker" while grinning. As I mentioned in the other thread, this isn't some huge "HOLY ****!" event...it's not a big surprise and I don't consider this normal type of close crossing hazardous. I don't think I misjudge more than one, maybe two crosses a year...and I do a fair amount of racing and a lot of crossing. I get crossed a lot and my competition doesn't always make it clean. It's how it works. There hasn't been a protest or collision from any crossing event that I have been involved with in 10 years.