Who says you are a cheat...? The morality play is not appropriate and part of the general problem with protests in cat sailing.

You decided to write about pushing the ROW rule to the edge and arguing that it is part of the racing game. Your use of percentages ignores the fact that this is black and white rule, The way you write gives the impression that you believe this game is more like a refereed game where the ref's judgment is determinative. In your world, the starboard boat has some judgment to make about your possible foul... for example.. .. they could have given your more time to cross before calling foul.. You state that you give people a pass on their cross and the evidence that you are correct on this whole cross etiquette thing is that you don’t have any collisions or protests found against you. This is not an argument.

In your characterization of racing ... That 70% chance affords you that little bit of wiggle room that you get and that you use carefully as a cushion for your possible error is in your view ... part of racing and you are happy to risk needing that bit of room ...confident that starboard will give it to you to avoid a collision and hail protest (or not hail protest).... So, if you make it... great. Essentially you put the onus of sailing by the RRS on ROW sailing onto Starboard.

That is the fundamental problem.

The logic of sailboat racing and the RRS is constant... a PS cross is the same as a mark rounding... If you touch the mark .. you foul... you do the circle... ASAP. Nobody calls you on it... you self enforce. The onus of the rule is on you and you alone. The ROW rule is the same thing. If you foul... You self enforce! The onus of the rule is on you. It’s your responsibility to make the call on yourself...

The RRS are self enforced and if views differ…. STARBORD registers a PROTEST as a last resort… He doesn’t JUDGE it a foul (like a ref or a judge) … he calls YOUR ACTIONS into question with the hail…if there is any dispute… down the line… the Protest committee does the judging. There is no local etiquette in this game. There is no morality play either.

So... what is s a foul in a cross?
You call your own... The foul doesn't depend on whether the other guy hails protest... (just like touching a mark) The rest of the fleet is your competition as well.

Now... to keep the game civil... The RRS put the protest hail in... the competitors on the course have recourse if they see the world differently than you do. That mark touch by your transom or stick that you don’t see…. They can call protest. The ROW cross is your call but they can register their point of view…

The RRS try to make this point...Self Enforced.. You don't get to the room unless you meet the standard... Hail Protest in a timely fashion... Notice the language… the word is Protest…. Not foul…… … You have the same responsibility to call the foul (ROW violation) on your self before they said a word… Now after the hail Protest… you are reminded that opinions differ but the recourse is left completely up to you…The RRS are SELF ENFORCED.. or a Protest committee deals with it down the road.

With your view of the racing game you are avoiding the onus of making the call on your own and you leave the foul up to Orphan to decide.... and in your view you reserve the right to agree or disagree with Orphan’s opinion of the cross and do your circle or carry on to the protest room. That is not the RRS.
You argue... "This is also the very commonly accepted way to race"
Sadly, this is true… in cat racing.

But you can’t escape the logic of the RRS The rules are self enforceable... you should do your circle no matter what starboard says about the cross if you judge it a foul or too close… because the RRS about ROW are self enforceable.
As a matter of racing strategy.... the pro's tell you Don't push it…… In your terms… your call should be 100% cross or do something else.
As a matter of safety... the bright line of ROW is critical in how safety on the course is managed.

Obviously, I completely disagree with your mindset of using the percentages , it is a slippery slope which caused ORPHAN to do something other sail on starboard and be the ROW boat… (he has to judge your actions and avoid you) Take the approach of… I can cross… 100% sure and I call my own fouls when mistakes or circumstances happen and the game will be better.