Mark...stop, please. You're looking like a fool. If I say I'm 70% sure we can make this clean. It means I think I can make it without impeding starboard. It's not a morality play - it's a percentage play. Morality never even comes into question.

Please read this carefully so you understand what I mean: my 70/30 proposition does not mean "I think the only 70% of my boat is going to clear and the last 30% of my boat is going to get hit of starboard doesn't take avoiding action". Also note that I would never go into a crossing situation, while on port, with confidence that we could not clear cleanly. Please also note that if I misjudged I would ALWAYS err on the side of my fault and take the penalty turns.

Things are not black and white on the race course. In some tight crossings, you can't possibly KNOW for certain that you will make it because of the odd puff, wave, nerves, etc....I choose to grade my level of certainty and use that to make a judgement - that's how I think. I do this the right way. I don't get snarled at on the race course, my competition respects me, and hell, even Ding doesn't call me out on this...and he's crotchety on this stuff.