Scenario 1) I make it clear and the starboard boat does not have to make any effort to avoid me. I don't do any penalty turns and I continue racing normally.

So.... Starboards call by Bundy is... He fouled me...
That is Bundy's perception... and for this case... does not say a word.
Now what should happen...

Under the RRS that we sail under.
Jake has to make the judgement ON HIMSELF... did I HONOR... not... did I clear by 6 inches... 6 feet, 6 yards, etc.
the standard is HONOR>.. If your understanding of honoring Starboards right of way is that I made it.. so I honored starboards right of way... You would sail on.... and vice versa.

Obviously, if Port SEE's Starbord change course then he KNOWS he violated the rule and does his proper penalty turn (your number 2) ..or he chooses to cheat in addition to breaking the rule. (Starbord has not said a word)

So, What does HONOR mean.
Dave Parker uses this interpretation of HONOR
My rule when walking in a crowd, riding my bike in traffic, or sailing a boat is that I am OK if the other guy does not have to "break stride" when I cross in front of him. So it's HIS perception that matters!

I agree... Port has to Judge his actions taking into account starboards perception and the reality on the water.... (Jake cleared by 6 inches)

The standards we use are .. CALL YOUR OWN which means that Jake judges himself and does a turn (or not) based on his HONOR the right of way of starbord.

When your sole benchmark is... I, Port cleared by 6 inches... you are diminishing the standard of HONOR Starbords Right of Way.... so you are violating the rule.

In this case... we know that Starboard has a strong opinion... Bundy says it was a foul... He did not change course...
But he is not the judge.. All he gets to do is hail protest... Jake gets a second bite at the apple now and can reevaluate his understanding of the standard... HONOR Starbords right of way....
Step three of the game is that Bundy files the paperwork and goes to the room.

The evidence he presents is windspeed, wave action, conditions, time and distance.

The PC will judge the standard of Port HONORING Starbords right of way on these facts!

So... your 70/30 calculation MUST take into account the rule.. HONOR starbords right of way. I can make it... it will be close But Starbord perception will be that his right of way was honored is the standard of the RRS.

I will make it .... it will be close... and I don't give a fig about what Starbord percieves about the cross is NOT HONORing Starbords ROW.

Another way to describe this concept is to use the word impecable. EG... I Honor my word MEANS “impeccable “ ... NOT “just enough to count”