I can't suppress the desire to say : "Told you so !"

My next prediction. It will be going futher. (That was easy !)

Interesting to note is that nearly all 2007 hobie event promo posters in EU show Hobie 16's with spinnakers if it doesn't show Tigers. Size of attending Hobie 16 class (no spi) seems not to matter.

Also I think the Hobie FX-one is on the tight rope at this time. Hobie Fox has been discontinued a few years ago and I think the FX-one is just surviving for now. Actually it all dependents on what a certain 16 foot class will be doing in Europe over the next few years. If that class booms then both the I-17 and FX-one designs will have a hard time.

I think the Hobie 16 may see more modifications to it over the coming years. Maybe better downhaul system and traveller systems added. Of course all with very small steps at one time. Sort of how the laser was upgraded over the last few years. The big step will be a new mainsail (+jib) design and I fear that that will be too much for the class to consider. But it is what will be needed to reverse the trend. Sort of how the new Hobie 14 rig (squaretops) revived the US H14 fleet.

Also I see a new situation developping were Nacra now has a good and inexpensive entry catamaran for today's families and dinkies (double income no kids) but Hobie hasn't. The new Nacra 500 is a good looking, fast and well behaved boat. The Hobie 16 pales in comparison and the roto stuff simply does not catch on in EU. This new generation of potential boat owners doesn't know about "The Old Days" nor cares about them or the "100.000 sold". They want a good looking boat that is reflective of the times. Nacra 500 with gray pentex sails is exactly that. And watch out for that rotomoulded Dart 16. That design has the potential to be a very serious competition to the hobie roto stuff.

I predict the old guard with keep supporting the OD Hobie 16 in its 70's configuration, but as such they will loose the influx of new blood and whither over time. Point in case : out of 495 boats at Texel 2007 only 40 of them were OD Hobie 16's (add 7 h16+spi) = 8%. In the past this used to be VERY different; then there were 100's of them.

Wouter